• The Election Prediction Paper-District 03-Michigan

Your paper should draw on the theories discussed in the readings and lecture and apply them to the specific election to which you are assigned.Your paper should include all of the following elements:

• Introduction to the District
  • In this section, you should set the stage of the 2016 election in your assigned district.You should describe major features like the location, size, population (race, age, etc), partisanship, and other election –relevant characteristics.You should also give a brief summary of the past 1 or 2 House elections.
  • Indicate whether the general makeup and/or characteristics of the district favor one candidate or the other and why.
• Introduction to the Candidates
  • Describe the two major party candidates.What are their respective backgrounds?
  • Indicate whether candidate characteristics (incumbency status, personal qualities, etc.) favor one candidate of the other and why.
• Discussion of Money and Interest Groups
  • Give an overview of the money being raised and spent by both candidates.Who are the major donors?Are the parties contributing heavily?Does one candidate have a distinct advantage over the other?
• Summarize the Nature of the Campaign
  • What appear to be the major strategies employed by the candidates?What issues are most prevalent?Are there significant outside groups running ads and/or impacting the campaign?Is there anything else of particular interest in this district that may shape the outcome of the campaign?
  • Overall, which candidate appears to be emerging as the superior campaigner?
• Overall Verdict
  • In this section, you should sum up what you have presented thus far and use that information and additional state and national factors to make an educated guess as to which party’s candidate will win the seat.Do not say it is too close to call — you must take a side and defend your choice.

General Guidelines:

• Papers must be uploaded through TurnItIn.com by 11:59 PM on Monday, November 2.
• Your paper should be typed and double-spaced in a standard 12-point font.You should aim to have about 6-8 full pages of text prior to formatting and footnotes.This is not a strict min/max, but note that your grade may be reduced if you fail to address all of the requirements.
• Most of your sources will be websites – census , FEC, candidate pages, local newspapers etc.As such, please cite using footnotes and simply paste the web address of the page on which you found the information as the footnote.If citing the same page as the note immediately prior, simply footnote and list Ibid.If you do cite a book or article, use a footnote and list the author’s last name, year of publication, and page number (if a direct quotation).You do not need to attach a works cited page if you only use websites and the books assigned for class.If you do use an outside book or article, then please do attach a works cited page.
• This paper should be your own words and argument so try to limit the use of direct quotations and large block quotes from other sources.
• Be sure to justify all of your statements about which candidate is favored with academic theory/evidence.Again, you are welcome to bring in books or articles beyond those assigned for class in order to do this, just please attach a works cited page.