The State Department, Department of Intelligence and Research (INR) and Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence had different intelligence than the CIA and the DIA. INR/DOE used the intelligence from the September 2002 classified National Intelligence Estimate. CIA/DIA used the intelligence from the unclassified White Paper, which Congress asked the intelligence community to prepare on the basis of the 2002 classified NIE in an effort to stimulate a broader public debate about WMD in Iraq.

Both documents turned out to be wrong, which led to a number of U.S. government investigations, including one by Congress which provided the excerpts of the intelligence obtained for this simulation.

In a 300-word post please answer the following questions:

1. The White Paper was criticized for overstating the findings of the 2002 classified NIE. Based on your reading of Appendix CAppendix C_NEW.pdfActions, do you agree with this criticism? How do small changes in wording affect the meaning of individual statements?
2. Did the CIA/DIA overstate the threat from Iraq’s WMD program compared to INR/DOE (who used the classified NIE)? Explain your answer. You will need to listen to the recording of the briefing to answer this if you did not attend. The recording and the two sets of data are in the module for the simulation.
3. Place yourself in the role of policymakers in the fall of 2002. Would the intelligence contained in the briefings and NIEs help them decide whether or not to go to war with Iraq)? How would they interpret the information from the briefings?

Be sure to refer to Lowenthal, pp. 183-191 and reply to a classmate.